Politics

Taiwan & USA vs China – Odds of War Keep Rising

In light of developments in the Far East, it is worth taking a close look at what is happening in the Taiwan Strait and the intensifying psychological warfare between the People’s Republic of China, the island republic of Taiwan, and the United States. A geopolitical analysis.

A recent report in the Wall Street Journal claiming that members of U.S. special operations forces had been on Taiwanese soil for well over a year in support of troop forces allegedly operating clandestinely in Taiwan with the aim of training Taiwanese military forces, had recently caused quite a stir around the world.

Neither the U.S. Department of Defense nor the government in Taipei has officially commented on these reports, but it appears that anonymous officials in the United States have leaked this information to the press.

Of course, this development has not gone unnoticed by the leading authorities in the People’s Republic of China, which is why diplomatic and bilateral relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China are likely to deteriorate further.

In response, the Chinese Communist Party’s media mouthpiece, the Global Times, spoke out in no uncertain terms about the events and happenings in Taiwan reported by American media in the form of a newspaper column.

This is not so much a statement as an unmistakable threat to the Taiwanese government and the United States. In the view of the Beijing leadership, sending and deploying American military forces to Taiwan is anything but a trivial offense.

Rather, this is a very serious matter that, according to the report linked above, culminates in the training of Taiwanese troops in direct connection with previously approved arms sales by the Americans to Taiwan.

The People’s Republic of China is also fully aware that the U.S. has previously sent its own military personnel to Taiwan, which has always been done secretly.

The U.S. government’s intention to make these events public is based on an attempt to send a strong signal to Beijing’s leadership. The timing could not have been more sensitive, according to the Global Times report.

This is because, in early October, the Chinese Air Force held widespread military exercises near Taiwan during the National Day holiday, while at the same time, high-ranking representatives of the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America met in Zurich, Switzerland, to reach some consensus regarding the further development of bilateral relations between the two nations.

The Global Times report then accuses the U.S. leadership of permanently harassing Mainland China. This is a continuous and progressive tactic of the Washington government.

It goes on to predict that mainland China must now respond in an unequivocal manner to the U.S. government’s new provocations in order to demonstrate to both Washington and Taipei the seriousness of their openly displayed cooperation.

Otherwise, it would not be long before regular American troops would be officially sent to Taiwan to be permanently stationed there.

It is now up to the People’s Republic of China to inform the governments in Washington and Taipei that the two countries are playing with fire. A fire that threatens to provoke the outbreak of war in the region.

Both the United States and Taiwan would have to realize the inevitable consequences of the outbreak of such a war from the U.S. and Taiwanese perspectives.

In the U.S. and Taiwan, there is great concern that mainland China may be nearing the completion of its military preparations to resolve the “Taiwan question” in the next few years – or perhaps imminently – through the use of military force.

It is up to Beijing’s leaders to make it clear to the U.S. and Taiwan that any attempt to increase cooperation between Taipei and Washington will only strengthen Mainland China’s resolve to reunify with Taiwan through the use of military force, the Global Times report added.

At the same time, general preparations in terms of military action (in the region) would only intensify, which could bring the possible outbreak of war closer in time.

Also, the People’s Republic of China would have no choice but to resolutely call an American troop deployment in Taiwan an “invasion”. Mainland China has the right to order military strikes against these troops in Taiwan at any time.

From Mainland China’s point of view, it would refrain from making any promises regarding their security and integrity. If war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, this american military personnel will be the first to face elimination.

On the basis of this declaration, the Washington government should be made to realize that it is playing a very dangerous game, which would result not only in risking the lives of young U.S. soldiers but also in burning its own fingers on this fire itself.

Finally, it will be up to Mainland China alone to decide at what point it will decide to launch military strikes. The future of the region and the overall situation in the Taiwan Strait would not be left to the jointly concocted plot of America and Taiwan.

Mainland China will not dance to their tune but will let their tricks come to nothing by means of strategic aggressiveness. The only result of the current developments in the Taiwan Strait will be that Taiwan will eventually return to the motherland.

In the case of the People’s Republic of China, it is a nuclear power. Charles Richard, head of U.S. Strategic Command, had described China’s nuclear deterrent capabilities as “breathtaking.” The military superiority of the People’s Republic of China is so overwhelming that Taiwan could be taken in an extremely short time.

If the American military were to participate in such a war, American units would not only be hit in a massive way by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, but they would also suffer very high casualties in the process.

While the People’s Republic of China is in the process of moving closer to the United States economically, the so-called U.S. sanctions against the People’s Republic of China have proven useless. The solution of the “Taiwan question” by means of war has become an increasingly realistic option, according to the Global Times report.

In the United States, the plan is to strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense forces and the Taiwanese army’s confidence in its own defense and defensive capabilities in order to successfully stand up to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. This is nothing more than unrealizable wishful thinking.

The American military had not only fully equipped the Afghan government army, but had also trained it over a long period of time, only to realize that this government army could not even withstand a breath of air. The Americans had already had similar experiences in Vietnam.

The Taiwanese leadership overestimates itself, claiming to be America’s outpost for containing mainland China. But once the Chinese People’s Liberation Army launches its general offensive against the political leadership across the Taiwan Strait-or even sets an ultimatum before the start of such an offensive-the whole world will quickly realize how weak and cowardly the Taiwanese secessionists really are.

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To mention it again at this point, China’s President Xi Jinping had already officially declared in his 2019 New Year’s address to the Chinese people that he would use force – and therefore military force – if necessary, to bring the breakaway province of Taiwan home to the Middle Kingdom.

Moreover, it should be noted that the U.S. government had once officially recognized that Taiwan was a (breakaway) province of the People’s Republic of China, not a separate nation. And for this reason, the behavior of the Biden administration, like that of the Trump administration before it, proves to be a violation of the U.S. government’s strategy and guideline on this matter until then.

It increasingly gives the impression that the neoconservatives whom Joe Biden appointed to his administration and with whom he surrounds himself seem to be threatening to publicly indict Joe Biden for “losing” Taiwan as a next step after the foreign policy disaster in Afghanistan.

This would be the case if Biden were to refrain from his numerous threats to the People’s Republic of China, the content of which is to potentially turn away from the “One-China” view of the U.S. government that has been valid up to now. Let it be said that this guideline has existed and been pursued in the U.S. since 1972.

On February 28, 1972, the so-called Shanghai Communique was signed, in which the United States pledged to consider and recognize Taiwan as an integral part of the People’s Republic of China – One China View.

Over the course of the past few years, it has increasingly appeared that the United States might not only be willing to move away from this view but might even be willing to recognize Taiwan as a separate nation with a diplomatic embassy in Washington under certain conditions.

A Financial Times report published on October 11 bears witness to the ways in which the U.S. government and its associated media establishment have been extremely successful in negatively affecting public opinion toward the People’s Republic of China over the course of the past several years.

However, this success also has a catch, as it has massively intensified the pressure on Joe Biden to wage war against the People’s Republic of China. What the Financial Times report omits in this context, however, is the fact that in July of this year the military website Defense One published a report stating that the U.S. is not prepared for a war against China and would probably lose such a potential war before the dawn of 2030.

The result would be a massive increase in pressure on Biden to order a nuclear strike against the People’s Republic of China in the hope of turning a military defeat into a military “victory”.

From the U.S. government’s perspective, it may yet prove fatal that defense contractors and mainstream media – who help decide behind the scenes which “elected” representatives rise to political power – may have been too successful in demonizing China in the public eye.

The question that arises is how serious America’s elite is about expanding the United States into an all-controlling empire that pursues its own claim to exercise full control over every other nation on our planet.

Is the risk of a nuclear war taken into account in order to see their goals fulfilled at some point, no matter what the cost? It is striking that millionaires and multi-billionaires have repeatedly made headlines as buyers of underground bunkers all over the world since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014 at the latest (for example HERE, HERE, or HERE).

A Rand Corporation study said that the United States would have to launch such a war against the People’s Republic of China by 2025 at the latest because the Chinese military would otherwise be equal to it by then.

If you carefully read the Defense One report linked above, you will be amazed to see that China’s military seems to be too strong at this point to fight a successful war from the U.S. point of view.

Hayato Ishikawa

Mr. Ishikawa has more than 25 years of experience in the financial markets, focusing on stocks, real estate, cross-asset risk hedging, and business founding. He is co-founder of a private investment group - specializing in the western pacific region and an independent analyst as well as business advisor. Mr. Ishikawa is known for bringing technical and fundamental analysis as well as sentiment into a coherent overall assessment - unbiased financial and political journalism made in Japan.
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